Zambia Investor Briefing - March 2026

In this month's briefing: Zambia's GDP growth forecast strengthened to 6.1% for 2026 as copper prices posted their first weekly gain amid Middle East conflict. KoBold Metals kicked off a $2.5 billion copper project targeting early-2030s production, while Canada's mining giants pushed output toward the 1 million tonne milestone. The Zambian government approved multi-billion dollar petroleum pipelines from both Tanzania and Namibia, establishing dual-ocean energy security. Inflation fell to 6.5% in March, while Q4 2025 revenue exceeded targets by 15.9% driven by mining sector profitability.

🔢  MARCH IN NUMBERS

→ 6.5% - March inflation (maintaining target band)

→ 6.1% - 2026 GDP growth forecast

→ 21.1% - Q4 2025 export growth ($3.52B→$4.27B)

→ 22.3% - Q4 2025 copper export earnings growth ($2.12B→$2.59B)

→ $2.5B - KoBold Metals copper project investment

→ $250M - Solar-wind hybrid energy project secured

→ $45M - World Bank budget support approved

→ 10-year - Tax holiday offered by ZDA for foreign investment

President Hichilema officiates ICTAZ Tech Conference, Training Expo and 17th Annual General Meeting in Livingstone.

📈 MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT & COPPER MARKETS

Iran Conflict Drives Market Volatility

Copper posted its first weekly gain in March amid rebounding Chinese demand, even as the Iran-US conflict continued to roil markets. The conflict, now entering its second month, has dented economic growth outlook, weighing on base metals. Aluminium has emerged as an exception given the Strait of Hormuz closure throttling approximately 9% of global supply. Japanese aluminium buyers paid their highest premium in 11 years. Copper added 0.4% to $12,195/tonne on London Metal Exchange (LME), giving it a 2.2% weekly gain. Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses posted their second-biggest inventory decline on record as Chinese buyers took advantage of lower prices.

📝 POLICY AND GOVERNANCE DEVELOPMENTS

Inflation Maintains Target Band

March inflation fell to 6.5%, maintaining position within the Bank of Zambia's 6-8% target band for the second consecutive month after reaching 7.5% in February. The sustained convergence validates the central bank's monetary policy framework and creates space for further interest rate reductions to support growth. The inflation performance has been supported by the Kwacha's 17% appreciation against the dollar since the start of 2026, favourable weather conditions supporting food production, and continued macroeconomic stability. The achievement marks dramatic turnaround from the 22% inflation peak experienced in 2023.

Revenue and Export Growth Strengthens

Zambia recorded stronger revenue collections, rising exports, and improved economic growth during 2025, according to the Debt Statistical Bulletin. Revenue and grants reached K53.23 billion ($2.8B) in Q4 2025, exceeding the K45.93 billion ($2.4B) target by 15.9%. Performance was driven by higher income tax from mining and non-mining sectors, supported by increased mining profitability. Government recorded primary fiscal surplus of K8.36 billion ($437M). Exports increased 21.1% from $3.52 billion to $4.27 billion in Q4 2025 versus Q4 2024. Copper export earnings rose 22.3% from $2.12 billion to $2.59 billion, driven by higher volumes and stronger prices.

UK Bilateral Debt Restructuring

Zambia signed a bilateral debt restructuring agreement with the United Kingdom, marking another milestone in the country's comprehensive debt resolution strategy. The agreement follows the successful restructuring of 94% of $13.3 billion external debt under the G20 Common Framework and contributes to restoring long-term fiscal sustainability. The UK agreement joins previous bilateral restructuring deals with China, France, and other creditor nations, demonstrating continued international support for Zambia's economic reform programme.

World Bank Budget Support

The World Bank approved $45 million in budget support for Zambia, adding to the institution's portfolio which surpassed $3 billion in February. The additional support reflects continued confidence in Zambia's reform trajectory and economic governance performance, complementing ongoing IMF programme discussions. The budget support is designed to help government maintain essential services while implementing structural reforms, particularly in social protection, healthcare, and education.

GDP Growth Forecast Revised Upward

Zambia's GDP growth forecast was revised to 6.1% for 2026, reflecting strengthening economic momentum across multiple sectors. The projection is supported by expanding copper production approaching the 1 million tonne milestone, rising manufacturing investment commitments exceeding $4 billion, and improved macroeconomic stability following inflation's sustained return to the 6-8% target band. Key growth drivers include mining and quarrying sector benefiting from higher copper prices and volumes, agriculture sector recovery from drought, and expanding wholesale and retail trade. The forecast represents significant improvement from the -2.8% contraction experienced in 2020.

⛏️ MINING AND INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENTS

KoBold Metals $2.5B Copper Project

Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates-backed KoBold Metals kicked off a $2.5 billion copper project in Zambia targeting early-2030s production, representing one of the largest greenfield copper commitments in recent years. The AI-powered mineral exploration company uses machine learning and data analytics to identify high-potential copper deposits. The project is expected to create thousands of jobs during construction and operations while contributing to Zambia's goal of tripling copper output to 3 million tonnes by 2031.

Canadian Mining Giants Lead Expansion

Canadian mining companies are leading Zambia's copper expansion as output approaches the record 1 million tonne milestone, with major investments from First Quantum Minerals, Barrick Gold, and other Canadian operators driving production gains. Following the 890,346 tonne 2025 output, Canadian firms are expanding through FQM’s $1.25 billion Kansanshi S3 expansion, Barrick’s Lumwana super-pit development, and sustained production increases at existing facilities. The expansion aligns with Washington's efforts to diversify critical mineral supply chains away from Chinese dominance, with Canadian companies viewed as reliable partners in North American supply chain security.

Makor Resources $30M Investment

Makor Resources entered Zambia with a $30 million copper investment plan focused on exploration and development activities, adding to the growing pipeline of international mining commitments. Makor's investment will focus on brownfield exploration near existing copper operations and greenfield exploration in underexplored regions of the Copperbelt. The company joins a growing cohort of junior and mid-tier mining companies entering Zambia to capitalise on its favourable geology and an improved regulatory environment.

Zambia Third Most Attractive Mining Destination

Zambia emerged as the third most attractive mining investment destination in Africa according to industry rankings, positioning behind only South Africa and Ghana. The ranking reflects institutional reforms including the establishment of the Mines Appeals Tribunal and Cadastre Department, the implementation of digital licensing systems, and improved geological data management reducing friction for investors. The positioning validates President Hichilema's Mining Indaba 2026 pitch positioning Zambia as partner of choice for responsible mining investment, highlighting approximately $12 billion in mining sector investments secured over the past four years.

ZCCM-IH PlanetGold Partnership

ZCCM Investments Holdings signed an MoU with PlanetGold to support mercury-free gold mining, addressing critical environmental concerns in artisanal and small-scale gold mining sector. The partnership demonstrates government commitment to responsible mining practices while formalising and supporting artisanal miners which have historically operated informally. PlanetGold, a United Nations Development Programme initiative, provides technical assistance and financing to help small-scale miners transition away from mercury use. The MoU includes training, equipment provision, and access to formal gold markets for miners adopting mercury-free techniques.

Seeking Global Investors for Copper Target

Zambia is courting global investors, including from the United States, as it aims to more than triple copper output to 3 million tonnes by 2031, Mines Minister Paul Kabuswe confirmed. Investment talks extend to various countries as part of broader strategy to achieve the production target from 890,346 tonnes produced in 2025. Kabuswe emphasised fair deals: "It has to be a win-win situation for Zambia and for the investors."

⚡️ ENERGY & INFRASTRUCTURE

Multi-Billion Dollar Pipelines Approved

Cabinet approved development of two major cross-border pipelines signaling a strategic shift toward multi-corridor supply model to end reliance on a single import route. The Tanzania-Zambia Multi-Products Pipeline (TZMPP) will run parallel to the historic 1,710km TAZAMA pipeline, transporting petrol, jet fuel, and kerosene with a $2 billion investment and 7 million metric tonne annual capacity (exceeding the 2030 consumption forecast of 3.7 million tonnes). The Namibia-Zambia Refined Petroleum and Natural Gas Pipeline (NZPGP) will connect Walvis Bay to Lusaka, carrying refined petroleum and 350 million cubic feet of natural gas daily for gas-to-power applications supporting copper mining.

$250M Solar-Wind Hybrid Project

Zambia attracted $250 million for a 100MW solar-wind hybrid energy project, diversifying the renewable energy portfolio beyond hydropower dependence. The hybrid approach combines solar photovoltaic generation during daylight with wind power generation, reducing dependence on weather patterns and providing more consistent baseload power. The project addresses capacity constraints that contributed to severe load-shedding during the 2024-2025 drought when hydropower generation was curtailed. The 100MW capacity will support mining sector power requirements and national grid stability, contributing to government's goal of ending load-shedding and ensuring reliable electricity for industrial expansion.

Anzana 50MW Hydropower for FQM

Anzana will develop a 50MW hydropower project dedicated to First Quantum Minerals operations in Zambia, supporting the mining company's expansion plans and reducing dependence on the national grid. The dedicated power supply strengthens operational resilience for First Quantum's Kansanshi and Sentinel mines while contributing to Zambia's renewable energy generation capacity. The project follows an embedded generation model, where large industrial consumers develop their own power infrastructure to ensure supply reliability and cost competitiveness. Anzana will finance, construct, and operate the facility under long-term power purchase agreement with First Quantum.

EU Railways Rehabilitation Support

The European Union pledged further support for Zambia Railways rehabilitation following the initial €50 million grant, according to the Managing Director's March statement. The commitment strengthens regional connectivity and directly supports the Lobito Corridor strategy linking Zambia's Copperbelt to Atlantic port access through Angola, providing an alternative to traditional routes through South Africa and Tanzania. The railway rehabilitation is critical for reducing transport costs for copper exports and improving regional trade facilitation.

Air Transport Earnings Surge

Air transport earned Zambia K9.9 billion in 2025, reflecting the growing aviation sector's contribution to GDP and demonstrating economic diversification beyond traditional mining revenues. The aviation earnings include revenues from national carrier Zambia Airways, private carriers, airport services, and related aviation infrastructure. The sector's growth aligns with broader tourism expansion objectives and improved regional trade facilitation.

🌍 TRADE & INVESTMENT POLICY

ZDA 10-Year Tax Holiday

The Zambia Development Agency announced a 10-year tax holiday package to attract foreign investment, significantly strengthening incentives for international investors considering projects in priority sectors. The policy complements expansion of special economic zones and aligns with broader industrialisation and economic diversification strategy. The tax holiday applies to qualifying investments in manufacturing, agriculture processing, tourism infrastructure, and renewable energy.

First Capital Bank SME Recognition

First Capital Bank Zambia was named Fastest Growing SME Bank Zambia 2026 by Global Banking & Finance Review, recognising the institution's significant role in supporting small and medium enterprises across the country. First Capital Bank has developed specialised SME banking products including working capital facilities, equipment financing, and digital banking solutions tailored to small business needs.

FNB-BII MSME Partnership

FNB and British International Investment (BII) signed an MoU to support micro, small and medium enterprises, expanding access to finance for businesses driving economic diversification. The partnership leverages international development finance to address SME financing constraints that have historically limited growth of small businesses. BII's involvement brings patient capital and technical expertise to help FNB expand its MSME lending portfolio.

Klapton Reinsurance Regional Expansion

Klapton Reinsurance is targeting regional expansion as direct listing anchors capital market entry, strengthening Zambia's financial services sector. The reinsurance company's regional expansion strategy positions Zambia as a financial services hub for Southern Africa, complementing the country's ambitions beyond commodity exports. The direct listing on the Lusaka Securities Exchange demonstrates growing sophistication of domestic capital markets following macroeconomic stabilisation.

MARCH MILESTONE ⛰️

March's $2.5 billion KoBold Metals copper project, backed by Bezos, Gates, and AI-powered exploration, represents the largest greenfield copper commitment in recent years and validates Zambia's positioning as the destination for next-generation mining investment. The AI exploration approach, Canadian expansion toward 1 million tonnes, and Makor Resources entry demonstrate that Zambia has moved from crisis recovery to competitive selection. When technology investors deploy $2.5 billion in African copper, they're betting on geology, yes, but they're betting on governance first.

👀  WHAT WE’RE WATCHING IN APRIL

→ KoBold Metals project development timeline and construction commencement

→ Tanzania-Zambia and Namibia-Zambia pipeline financing structures and PPP terms

→ Canadian mining companies' production ramp toward 1 million tonne milestone

→ Bank of Zambia May MPC meeting and potential further rate cuts

→ Choolwe Chibomba kicks off season 6 of BackChat in an interview with Rebecca Terzeon, British High Commissioner to Zambia

📖  WHAT WE’VE BEEN READING (AND WATCHING) IN MARCH

Africa should not pick sides in minerals race, says Zambia - Financial Times | 2 March 2026

Zambia Seeks Global Investors to Triple Copper Production by 2031 - Discovery Alert | 16 March 2026

‘We learnt the hard way’, says Zambia’s Central Bank Governor Denny Kalyalya - The Africa Report | 16 March

QUOTE OF THE MONTH

"With have a clear pathway to achieving 3 million tonnes of copper by 2031 through revived operations, new projects, and ongoing exploration, Zambia is open for business and ready for partnerships that create jobs, deliver value, and drive sustainable growth."

— President Hakainde Hichilema speaking at the 2026 Zambia International Mining and Energy Conference and Exhibition