Zambia Investor Briefing - January 2026

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January 2026

In this month's briefing: Zambia's 2025 copper production reached 890,346 metric tonnes (8% increase), inflation dropped below 10% for the first time since 2023, and Chinese mining companies began paying taxes in yuan marking an Africa-first policy shift. Major energy announcements included ZCCM-IH's $202 million renewable energy initiative targeting 312MW across all constituencies, while Zambia and Zimbabwe committed $440 million in equity to revive the $4.2 billion Batoka Gorge hydropower project.

🔢  JANUARY IN NUMBERS

→ 890,346 tonnes - 2025 copper production (+8%)

→ 9.4% - January inflation (first sub-10% since 2023)

→ $202M - ZCCM-IH renewable energy initiative (312MW)

→ $440M - Batoka Gorge equity commitment

→ $1B - Zambia Sugar market capitalisation milestone

→ $190M - IMF final ECF disbursement

→ 2,375 - Mining licences issued in 2025 (+9.2%)

President Hichilema hosts a delegation of global investors led by JP Morgan and Chase, joined by representatives from leading firms across London, Geneva, Boston, Dubai, Luxembourg, and the United States.

⛏️ MINING DEVELOPMENTS

2025 Copper Production Results

Zambia's copper production reached 890,346 metric tonnes in 2025, an 8% increase from 825,513 tonnes in 2024, though falling short of the one-million-tonne target. Vedanta's Konkola Copper Mines posted a four-fold increase to 80,215 tonnes, while Mopani Copper Mines increased output 40%. First Quantum's Kansanshi and JCHX Mining's Lubambe also recorded gains. The performance demonstrates progress toward the 3-million-tonne 2031 target as $10 billion in expansion projects advance across the sector.

Yuan Tax Payments

Chinese mine operators began paying royalties and taxes in yuan in October, making Zambia the first African nation to accept mining-tax payments in renminbi. The Bank of Zambia expanded 2018 dollar surrender requirements to include yuan, enabling operators to choose which currency to sell for tax obligations. The central bank cited reserve diversification and cost-effective debt servicing to China as key objectives. With copper exports heavily concentrated in Chinese markets where payments arrive in renminbi, the policy illustrates a high degree of commercial realism.

Mining Licensing Surge

The government issued 2,375 mining licences in 2025, a 9.2% increase from 2,175 in 2024. Artisanal Mining Rights jumped 57% from 680 to 1,068 licences. Of total 2025 licences, 1,666 involved direct Zambian participation. Major investments include Sinomine's $600 million Kitumba Mine featuring a 50MW solar plant, and FQM's $1.25 billion Kansanshi S3 Expansion creating 1,500 jobs. Strengthened oversight comes through the Geological and Minerals Development Act No. 2 of 2025 and the newly operational Minerals Regulation Commission.

🚜  AGRIBUSINESS EXPANSION  

Zambia Sugar Valuation Milestone

Zambia Sugar PLC reached a $1 billion market capitalisation on the Lusaka Securities Exchange, becoming the first company outside energy and mining sectors to achieve this landmark. Share price increased 40% since FY2025 close, rising from K48 to K67. The company announced plans to expand power generation from 40MW to 53MW by end-2026, reaching 60MW by 2030 through cogeneration technology. The expansion forms part of a $132 million investment programme to increase sugar production from 400,000 to 500,000 metric tonnes annually.

⚡️ ENERGY & INFRASTRUCTURE

ZCCM-IH Renewable Energy Initiative

ZCCM Investments Holdings launched Zambia National Energy Corporation Limited in partnership with the Ministry of Finance to drive the $202 million Presidential Constituency Energy Initiative. ZNEC will deploy renewable energy solutions targeting 2MW in each of Zambia's 156 constituencies for 312MW total capacity. The investment structure comprises 70% debt and 30% equity, with ZCCM-IH contributing $36.36 million for a 60% stake. The initiative strengthens ZCCM-IH's presence in energy transition while improving access in underserved constituencies.

Batoka Gorge Revival

Zambia and Zimbabwe committed $440 million in equity ($220 million each) to revive the delayed $4.2 billion Batoka Gorge hydropower project. The 2,400MW facility will provide 1,200MW to each country when complete. Located 54km downstream of Victoria Falls, the project faced years of delays including pandemic disruptions and June 2023 procurement withdrawal over transparency concerns. The equity commitment aims to strengthen project bankability and attract private capital for the 181m-high arch-gravity dam.

📝 POLICY DEVELOPMENTS

Inflation Drops Below 10%

Annual inflation fell to 9.4% in January from 11.2% in December, marking the first sub-10% reading since 2023. The Kwacha rallied 16% against the dollar since December, driven by central bank restrictions on foreign-currency use and surging copper prices. Food inflation eased to 10.9% from 12.9% while non-food inflation decelerated to 7.3% from 8.7%. The drop strengthens the case for further rate cuts when the Monetary Policy Committee meets February 11.

IMF Program Completion

The IMF Executive Board approved the sixth and final review of Zambia's Extended Credit Facility, authorising immediate disbursement of $190 million and bringing total disbursements to $1.7 billion. Real GDP growth is estimated at 5.2% in 2025, projected at 5.8% in 2026. Zambia significantly reduced macroeconomic imbalances and restructured 94% of $13.3 billion in debt while safeguarding social spending. The President thanked Zambians for their patience and resilience during the economic recovery programme, noting that results stem from prudent fiscal management and structural reforms recognised by the IMF.

JANUARY MILESTONE ⛰️

Zambia became the first African nation to accept yuan for mining tax payments, marking a pragmatic recalibration rather than strategic realignment. The Bank of Zambia's decision to complement—not replace—dollar tax channels reduces conversion frictions while maintaining the dollar as reserve anchor. With Chinese creditors holding an estimated 30% of external debt and China accounting for 20.5% of imports, the yuan option aligns settlement infrastructure with established trade patterns. The policy demonstrates Zambia's capacity to adapt currency administration to copper sector fundamentals without abandoning Western institutional relationships or compromising fiscal credibility.

👀  WHAT WE’RE WATCHING IN FEBRUARY

→ Bank of Zambia Monetary Policy Committee meeting (Feb 11) and potential further rate cuts following single-digit inflation

→ ZCCM-IH renewable energy rollout implementation timeline for 156-constituency deployment

→ Batoka Gorge project financing mobilisation and private investor engagement following $440M equity commitment

→ Zambian delegation arrives at Mining Indaba 2026 (Feb 9-12)

📖  WHAT WE’VE BEEN READING (AND WATCHING) IN JANUARY

Africa's Mineral Makeover - TIME Magazine | 15 January 2026

Zambia Metalex Cobalt Copper Project: Strategic Western Investment Initiative - Discovery Alert | 10 January 2026

China's Shadow in Copper: Zambia's Case for Yuan Mining Tax Payments - ZIPAR | 9 January 2026

QUOTE OF THE MONTH

"Despite external and domestic shocks, Zambia has significantly reduced macroeconomic imbalances, made considerable progress on debt restructuring, and undertaken sustained fiscal consolidation while safeguarding social spending."

— Nigel Clarke, IMF Deputy Managing Director, on completion of Zambia's Extended Credit Facility

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