Zambia Investor Briefing - September 2026

In this month's briefing: President Hichilema opened his second term by unveiling the Grow Zambia Agenda, a programme to move the economy from stabilisation to accelerated growth, and witnessed the signing of US$2.14 billion in investment agreements in Abu Dhabi. The economy grew 7.2% in the second quarter, inflation eased to 6.1%, its lowest since February 2018, and the Bank of Zambia delivered its deepest rate cut since at least 2012, to 10.75%. An IMF mission arrived in Lusaka to begin talks on a successor programme. Zambia joined J.P. Morgan's new frontier bond index, global investors stayed bullish on Zambian assets and the Lusaka Securities Exchange lined up its first gold ETF and a US$1 billion listings pipeline. Elsewhere in the economy, BII anchored Zanaco's debut US$100 million sustainability bond, Exergy and Mercuria signed a US$250 million power deal, ZESCO agreed a 500MW solar PPA and Maamba Solar fed its first power into the grid, while KCM awarded the contract for Africa's largest tailings-leach plant and ZCCM-IH approved its eleventh consecutive dividend.

🔢  SEPTEMBER IN NUMBERS

• → 7.2% - Q2 2026 GDP growth, above the 6.4% annual target

• → 6.1% - September inflation, the lowest since February 2018

• → 37% - 2026 return on Zambian local-currency debt, the highest in Africa

• → 10.75% - Interest rate after 250 basis point cut, the largest since at least 2012

• → US$1bn - Expected raise from five LuSE listings in the pipeline

• → US$2.14bn - Memoranda of understanding signed at the Zambia–UAE Business Forum

• → US$498m - KCM tailings-leach plant, the largest in Africa

• → US$250m - Exergy–Mercuria power financing agreement

• → US$90m - 100MW Maamba Solar Project, now feeding the national grid

• → 500MW - ZESCO–EnerSynk solar Power Purchase Agreement

• → K183m - ZCCM-IH final dividend, its eleventh in a row

• → 93.6% - Completion of the national mineral survey

• → K2bn+ - Paid digitally to over 113,000 farmers

President Hakainde Hichilema attends the Zambia–UAE Business Forum in Abu Dhabi

📈 ECONOMY & MONETARY POLICY

Grow Zambia Agenda Sets Second-Term Targets

President Hakainde Hichilema unveiled the Grow Zambia Agenda in his inauguration speech, a programme to shift Zambia from economic stabilisation to accelerated growth and triple the size of the economy over the next five years. Its 10-10-5-3-3-1-1-1 targets for 2031 include 10 million tonnes of maize, 10,000MW of electricity, five million tourist arrivals a year, three million tonnes each of copper and soya beans, one million tonnes each of wheat and sugar, and a US$1 billion beef industry.

Economy Grows 7.2% as Inflation Eases to 6.1%

Zambia's economy grew 7.2% in the second quarter, ahead of the Government's 2026 growth target of 6.4%, according to the Zambia Statistics Agency. Information and communication led growth, followed by agriculture, construction, mining and manufacturing, with agriculture expanding 26.5% at industry level. Annual inflation eased to 6.1% in September from 6.2% in August, its lowest since February 2018, helped by slower food-price rises and a stronger kwacha.

Bank of Zambia Delivers Deepest Rate Cut Since 2012

The Bank of Zambia lowered its policy rate to 10.75% from 13.25%, its fourth successive cut and the largest since at least 2012. Governor Denny Kalyalya said inflation is projected to stay within the 6-8% target band into 2028, averaging 6.7% this year and 6% in 2027, supported by stable grain prices and a stronger kwacha. International reserves rose to US$6 billion at the end of July, equivalent to 4.5 months of import cover, and the central bank forecasts growth of 5.3% this year. Zambia joins a small group of economies cutting rates while most central banks hold or tighten.

IMF Mission Opens Talks On New Programme

An IMF staff mission is in Lusaka for talks on a new support programme, with the Government now targeting average growth of 7% over the next three years. The previous US$1.7bn arrangement expired in January, and the Government aims to agree a successor before year-end. The Ministry of Finance said it wants the new programme to preserve macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability while placing greater emphasis on private sector-led growth, exports, diversification, investment and job creation. An IMF spokesperson said discussions were focused on safeguarding fiscal and debt sustainability, strengthening reserve accumulation and supporting more inclusive, private sector-led growth. The mission runs until 10 October.

Government Targets 7% Average Growth

The Ministry of Finance aims to lift economic growth to an average of 7% over the next three years, with its medium-term framework projecting 6% in 2027, the fastest pace since 2021, followed by 7.5% in 2028 and 7.1% in 2029. Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane said the Government wants to move beyond stabilisation to securing more investment, stronger exports and job creation through mining, energy and agriculture. Copper output is forecast to pass one million tonnes next year and reach 1.4 million tonnes by 2029, while the fiscal deficit narrows to 1.4% of GDP. The Government also plans to introduce a 20-year bond to extend the yield curve.

💵 CAPITAL MARKETS

Global Investors Bullish on Zambia

Some of the world's largest money managers and lenders, including William Blair, Bank of America, AllianceBernstein and Citigroup, are bullish on Zambian stocks, bonds and currency, betting on policy continuity after President Hichilema's re-election. The kwacha has strengthened 16% against the dollar this year and local-currency debt has returned almost 37%, the highest in Africa. Citigroup has turned overweight on Zambian credit, with analysts increasingly viewing Zambia as a reform story.

Zambia Joins J.P. Morgan Frontier Bond Index

Zambia has been included in the GBI-EM Edge, a new J.P. Morgan government bond index tracking frontier markets. The index is expected to cover up to US$330 billion of debt across 26 countries, with African issuers accounting for at least 45%. Inclusion followed the Bank of Zambia's decision to increase bond auction sizes, lifting Zambian issues above the index threshold.

LuSE to Launch First Gold ETF

The Lusaka Securities Exchange will list its first exchange-traded fund before the end of October, a gold ETF sponsored by Absa Group. Chief Executive Nicholas Kabaso said five company listings in manufacturing, mining and telecommunications are lined up, with initial public offerings expected to raise about US$1 billion. He said foreign demand for Zambian bonds and equities has recovered since the Electoral Commission of Zambia declared President Hakainde Hichilema winner of the August election.

BII Anchors Zanaco's Debut Sustainability Bond

British International Investment committed US$65 million across Zambia and Zimbabwe as it launched its new five-year strategy in Zambia, including a US$15 million anchor commitment to Zanaco's debut US$100 million Sustainability Bond Programme. The Lusaka Securities Exchange described the deal as the first sustainability bond issued by a Zambian bank. Proceeds will fund climate-resilient agriculture, renewable energy, SMEs and social infrastructure. BII also launched Horizon Zambia to help local businesses become investment-ready.

ZCCM-IH Extends Dividend Run

ZCCM Investments Holdings shareholders approved a K183 million final dividend, the company's eleventh consecutive annual payout. Net asset value per share has risen more than 235% since 2021 to K267.44. Chief Executive Kakenenwa Muyangwa said the company is weighing a share sale to meet the LuSE's 25% free-float requirement, as part of a ten-year strategy to grow its market capitalisation from about US$1 billion to US$7 billion. The new strategy launches in November.

⛏️ MINING AND COPPER

KCM Awards US$498m Tailings Plant Contract

Konkola Copper Mines awarded the engineering, procurement and construction contract for a US$498 million tailings-leach plant in Chingola to China NERIN Engineering. The plant will recover around 70,000 tonnes of copper a year from existing mine tailings and will be the largest facility of its kind in Africa. It forms part of Vedanta's plan to lift KCM's output to 300,000 tonnes a year by 2030.

National Mineral Survey Nears Completion

Zambia's nationwide high-resolution geophysical survey has reached 93.6% completion, with the Government targeting December 2026 to finish the first major mineral mapping exercise since 1972. Acting Permanent Secretary at the Ministry of Mines and Minerals Development Anthony Chilengi said the data would open up areas that have seen little systematic exploration. The survey runs alongside regulatory reforms, including a new Minerals Regulation Commission and a Mining Appeals Tribunal.

Koryx Launches Maiden Zambian Drilling

TSX-listed Koryx Copper announced a 2,500-metre drill programme at its Luanshya West project on the Copperbelt, testing up to four targets through to mid-December. The company is also completing around 3,000 soil samples at its Mpongwe project and has increased its stake in Koryx Copper Zambia from 51% to 80%.

⚡ENERGY

Maamba Solar Feeds First Power to Grid

The 100-megawatt Maamba Solar Project fed electricity into the national grid for the first time on 24 September and has entered its commissioning phase. The plant, worth around US$90 million, is a joint venture between ZCCM-IH (35%) and Nava Global (65%), and sells its full output to ZESCO under a 20-year Power Purchase Agreement. ZCCM-IH Chief Executive Kakenenwa Muyangwa called it a timely response to Zambia's energy security needs.

Exergy and Mercuria Sign US$250m Power Deal

Exergy and global commodities group Mercuria signed a US$250 million financing agreement in Lusaka to support power generation and transmission projects across Southern and Eastern Africa, one of the largest private capital commitments to Zambia's power sector to date. The deal, subject to regulatory approvals, marks Mercuria's entry into the region's power market and will support projects including a transmission highway linking Zambia to the East African power market.

ZESCO Signs 500MW Solar PPA

ZESCO signed a 25-year Power Purchase Agreement with Hungarian climate infrastructure company EnerSynk Group for a 500MW solar project, around 5% of Zambia's 10,000MW generation target. Acting Managing Director Fitzpatrick Kapepe said broadening the energy mix reduces climate-related economic risks. Feasibility, grid impact and environmental studies will follow.

Sturdee Enters Zambia with 200MW Wind Project

South African independent power producer Sturdee Energy acquired the 200MW Masaiti Wind Project in Mpongwe District, its fifth market in the SADC region. The late-stage project, backed by more than six years of on-site wind data, will connect to an adjacent ZESCO 330kV line and be paired with solar and battery storage for round-the-clock supply.

ERB Approves K1bn in Energy Licences

The Energy Regulation Board approved 33 licence applications and three construction permits across the petroleum, renewable energy and electricity sub-sectors, representing combined investment commitments of K1 billion (about US$50.9 million). The regulator said the approvals reflected investor confidence in the energy sector.

Tazama Pipeline to Reopen to Multiple Suppliers

Zambia expects to restore open access to the Tazama fuel pipeline by January, Ministry of Energy Permanent Secretary Ephraim Munshifwa said. The pipeline, which carries fuel from Dar es Salaam to the Copperbelt, has operated under a temporary exclusive supply arrangement with Vitol since global energy disruptions earlier this year. Pipeline operator Tazama is already pre-qualifying suppliers for the return to competition.

🏗 INFRASTRUCTURE AND TRADE ROUTES

Rail Investment to Match Production Targets

Finance and National Planning Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane said Zambia is investing in the TAZARA and Lobito railways to carry rising mineral and agricultural output. TAZARA's concession with China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation provides for more than US$1.4 billion of investment, including an inland port at Kapiri Mposhi, while Zambia Railways aims to more than triple annual freight to 2.6 million tonnes by the end of 2028.

Chirundu Border Upgrade Secures Funding

Zimbabwe secured financing for the modernisation of the Chirundu Border Post with Zambia, a key gateway for copper, cobalt, fuel and agricultural goods moving between the Copperbelt and southern African ports. The project, estimated at US$66.8 million, has reached financial close under a public-private partnership led by Safaga International, which delivered the Beitbridge upgrade. Construction is due to begin in October and take around 18 months.

US Backs Lobito Corridor Power Study

The US Trade and Development Agency signed an agreement with Anzana Electric Group to fund a feasibility study for new hydropower capacity and upgraded distribution networks in Zambia's North-Western Province and Congo's Lualaba province. The wider electrification initiative, valued at around US$300 million, would supply mines feeding the Lobito Corridor and serve more than three million people.

🤝 INTERNATIONAL PARTNERSHIPS

US$2.14bn in Agreements Signed with the UAE

President Hakainde Hichilema made a working visit to the United Arab Emirates at the invitation of UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, his first trip abroad since the election. At the Zambia–UAE Business Forum in Abu Dhabi, the two sides signed memoranda of understanding across various sectors worth a total of US$2.14 billion, with a focus on mining and mineral value addition, agriculture, energy, infrastructure, logistics, tourism and healthcare. The President said Zambia looks forward to signing a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement with the UAE to increase trade between the two countries.

India Revives Critical Minerals Talks

India has resumed talks with Zambia on investing in copper and other critical minerals, Reuters reported, citing two sources, with officials from India's Ministry of Mines holding preliminary discussions with Zambian officials on 26 August. India is the world's second-biggest buyer of refined copper.

Zambia Courts British Investment in Carbon Markets

Green Economy and Environment Minister Gabriel Siame called on British investors to expand their participation in Zambia's carbon credit markets during a meeting with British High Commissioner Rebecca Terzeon. Terzeon reaffirmed the UK's commitment to long-term, responsible investment, citing the Climate Finance Unit established under the Green Growth Compact. Siame also invited greater Chinese investment in renewables, electric mobility and forestry, with Chinese Ambassador Han Jing pledging deeper green cooperation.

📊 SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS

Tourism Passes Two Million Arrivals

Zambia has surpassed two million international tourist arrivals and is working towards its target of 2.5 million by the end of 2026, Ministry of Tourism Permanent Secretary Evans Muhanga said. The Government is targeting five million arrivals by 2031.

National Digital Trust Infrastructure Launched

Zambia launched its National Public Key Infrastructure on 7 September, a national framework for verifying digital identities, authenticating electronic signatures and securing online transactions. ZICTA now acts as the National Root Certification Authority, supporting wider use of e-government services, digital banking and paperless approvals.

Over K2bn Paid to Farmers Digitally

Access Bank Zambia has disbursed more than K2 billion to over 113,000 farmers through its digital payment platform for maize supplied to the Food Reserve Agency, with payments now reaching farmers within 24 hours. Managing Director Iheanyi Nwogu described it as an example of public-private collaboration improving service delivery.

SEPTEMBER MILESTONE ⛰️

September brought one of the clearest signals yet of how far Zambia's recovery has travelled. J.P. Morgan included the country in GBI-EM Edge, a new frontier-market bond index expected to cover up to US$330 billion of government debt across 26 countries. Inclusion matters because many global funds track such indices directly, bringing in buyers who were not previously looking at Zambian debt. The decisive factor was the Bank of Zambia's move to increase bond auction sizes, which lifted Zambian issues above J.P. Morgan's minimum threshold. Wider participation should give the Treasury a steadier and cheaper source of funding, while lower government yields tend to ease borrowing costs for the private sector. With yields already falling sharply across the curve, the Government now plans a 20-year bond to extend its borrowing horizon further.

👀  WHAT WE’RE WATCHING IN OCTOBER

• → Listing of LuSE's first gold ETF

• → Start of construction on the US$66.8 million Chirundu Border Post upgrade

• → Maamba Solar testing ahead of full commercial operation

• → Koryx Copper's Luanshya West drilling programme

• → Talks with the IMF staff mission in Lusaka, which runs until 10 October

• → Progress on the USTDA-funded Lobito Corridor power feasibility study

• → Progress towards signing the Zambia–UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement and implementing the US$2.14 billion in memoranda signed in Abu Dhabi

QUOTE OF THE MONTH

"We will continue to prioritise increased trade and domestic reforms to attract the investment needed to grow our economy."

— President Hakainde Hichilema at the Zambia–UAE Business Forum in Abu Dhabi